Chinese wine and chinese consumers

Will China become the empire of Wine before 2050 ? 


Some purists say it is impossible: quality is still mediocre and people are not used to the culture of grapes and vines.
Yet, China is already the first producer of table grapes. In less than 10 years, the surface of its vineyards has known a 176% increase and now reaches 500 000 hectares (that is to say 6% of the world's vineyards).

Today, according to a report on "Wine in the world as we approach 2050" (See link here) China is the 6th biggest exporter of wines on the planet.

One can't deny that in 2010 beer and spirits are still the main targets of the Chinese market. However it seems that 10¨% of the population now drinks regularly wine.
New consumers have emerged, curious to discover new varieties and learn more about the tradition of wine. To them, wine remains a "romantic" beverage, and the epitome of social success. 

There are today five major companies that produce more than 70% of the bottles drunk by the Chinese people.
Cofco (owner of Great Wall), Changyu, Huadong, Suntime and Dynasty lead the market, leaving very little place for other countries' imports. France for instance only represents 5% of the total market.

In a few years, China could even become an important exporter thanks to many assets :
low labour costs, a low currency and low prices for raw material but most of all an extensive network of distributors all over the world thanks to the immense Chinese diaspora.

If today quantity still prevails over quality, new technologies, the help of foreign wine experts and GMO's may help to change this significantly. An appellation still needs to be created in order to track quality and certify wines.

What will be the future of wine in China: will consumers finally adopt the culture of wine or will it only remain a  symbol meant to please rising classes that are eager to show their power?
Do you believe China will become one of the top wine importers in the world? And will the empire ever change its focus from quantity to quality?

All these questions may change our way of drinking wine as well as the current equilibrium of the world's wine market. Thinking of the arrival of a whole new world of consumers may be a little bit frightening for traditional consumers like us French or American, yet it also seems like an extraordinary adventure that I would not want to miss under any circumstances.